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It has become something of an institution to go out drinking with your friends on Friday nights, especially since you started working for PharmChemCo (PCC) five years ago and began pulling in a big salary. The company is one of the biggest pharmaceutical and chemical companies in the world, and working there has brought you career success and a very healthy bank balance. It has also turned you into quite a successful player in the stock market. Since you were promoted to regional marketing director for the North East, PCC has paid a large chunk of your bonuses in stock options. Even with a dipping market, this has proved to be an extremely lucrative package, given your success in meeting sales targets and, of course, shrewd investment over the last two-and-a-half years. This particular Friday night, however, you are not feeling so great. Yes, you have an expensive cocktail in your hand; yes, you have some of your best mates with you, all very much up for a big night out; and yes, Freddie, your best friend from college, will be arriving any minute. However, the last week in the office has been a nightmare. A special meeting had been called by one of the vice-presidents for all of the senior managers. At the meeting, it was announced that scientists in a leading research lab at SFW University in the US had discovered some potentially lethal side-effects associated with one PCC’s best-selling herbicides. The report had been confidential to the board of PCC, but an article containing the research was going to be published in Big Science magazine on Thursday next week. The purpose of the meeting was to inform everybody and to discuss potential strategies to tackle the problem. Consequently, you were urged to stay absolutely silent about the research findings, particularly as the likelihood was that this would turn out to be a major news story. Knowing about this makes you uneasy now. It is pretty certain that this information will have a major effect on the share price of PCC as court cases in the US with huge damages are a certainty. Digesting the news in your office after lunch, you had already decided to sell your shares in PCC first thing on Monday—as it is almost certain that the value of your stocks will not be the same in the foreseeable future once this news is out. However, you are certain that Freddie, your friend from college, is also going to be badly affected by the news once it gets out. He is now an account manager for a major investment bank. And not only has he invested heavily in PCC shares himself, he has also advised many of his clients—among them managers of major funds—to invest in PCC. You are quite uneasy about what to do. Freddie is your best friend, and you want to help him. You know he will hear the news soon anyway and maybe, given his contacts, even before it is published next Thursday. But if you tell him now, you are certain that he will sell his own shares (which you really would not mind), but as he is measured by the performance of his advice to his clients, you can be pretty certain that he will also advise his clients to sell. The effect on the share price before the publication of the article could be substantial.


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