What is miscalibration? What explains miscalibration?
What is the better-than-average effect? What contributes to it?
What is optimistic bias?
What factors do cause overconfidence?
What factors do cause the illusion of control?
Discuss the illusions of validity and skill. What does support them?
What is cognitive dissonance? What do people do to reduce cognitive dissonance?
Discuss the following: self-attribution bias, confirmation bias, hindsight bias, naïve realism, distorted self-perception. 9. Discuss the illusion of pundits.
What is the evidence on superiority of formulas, models, or algorithms?
Why do experts tend to be inferior to algorithms?
Discuss the robustness of a simple algorithm.
Why is there hostility to algorithms?
When can you trust expert intuition?
Why are we not good at untangling the role of luck and skill?
What is luck? What is skill?
What is strategy paradox?
What is under sampling of failure?
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